Of all the primary grocery real estate markets in our Signals to Savour research, Poland offers the longest runway for rental growth – and the reason comes down to a quirk in how its leases are structured.
Polish grocery rents are indexed to the eurozone HICP rather than domestic Polish inflation. That’s a technical detail almost everywhere else, but in Poland it creates a genuine structural gap: domestic food inflation has consistently run higher than the European figure landlords’ rents are tied to, peaking at 15.1% in 2023 and still running ahead of headline inflation as recently as 2025. Across leases typically structured in 10-year blocks over a 30-year term, that gap compounds – turnover grows on the back of real Polish food prices, while rent tracks a slower-moving European average.
The tenant base backing that income is also unusually concentrated. Biedronka holds 64.5% of all discounter stores in Poland – the single most dominant position held by any operator, in any format, across every market in our research. Discounters now outnumber supermarkets outright in Poland, the only market in our report where that happens, giving landlords exposure to a deeply entrenched, well-capitalised tenant rather than a fragmented, competitive field.
Capital is already moving on this. Retail Park transaction volumes in Poland rose more than fivefold year-on-year, retail parks now account for roughly 90% of the country’s development pipeline, and retail was Poland’s largest investment sector in the first half of this year.
For NEXT, that combination – a structural indexation advantage, a dominant and well-capitalised tenant base, and capital actively following the thesis – is exactly the kind of repeatable, structural edge that’s hard to find once a market has fully matured.
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